United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
In the present report, a comprehensive and empirical analysis of the relationship between conflict and socioeconomic development in African countries is set out. In order to provide policy options for preventing conflict and mitigating its effects, the report includes an analysis, completed using a variety of methodologies and disaggregated event-level data, of the evolution of conflict in the region and estimates of the socioeconomic costs of such conflict. In addition, the theoretical and analytical framework of the research is laid out, along with the empirical model and resultant findings, concluding remarks and policy recommendations.
In the present study, the nexus between conflict and socioeconomic development in Africa has been examined. The study was focused on economic growth and on the important but under researched nexus between conflict and social outcomes, such as human development, which encompasses life expectancy, educational attainment and standards of living. The empirical study, consisting of a dynamic panel estimation, offers some new insight into the complex and dynamic relationship between conflict and development. Endogeneity, autocorrelation, cross-sectional and heterogeneity issues in the regression were addressed and, therefore, the strong results of the dynamic two-step system generalized method of moments approach helped to identify various policy-relevant effects of conflict on development. In particular, a high level of conflict intensity has been found to reduce long-term economic growth and worsen social outcomes, specifically by reducing life expectancy, expected years of schooling and living standards.